Candidates and Character

Presidential Election Forum #3

November 1, 2000

Brian Smentkowski, Ph.D.

Department of Political Science

• Monday morning, NPR: “Bush has made character an issue while avoiding it himself.”
• He has concluded over 1,000 speeches with the promise that if elected, he will “restore honor, dignity, and integrity to the White House and America” The crowd goes nuts.
• Are Americans suddenly forgiving with regard to human failure? Clinton was hurt more by the allegations of lying than by infidelity. Importantly, Clinton ultimately dealt with the scandal surrounding his administration. Gore is remembered as the stoic supporter of the “greatest president our country has seen.” Similarly, Bush’s personal problems with alcohol and drugs have not plagued him. The public sentiment is: What he did hurt him alone, and before it affected any else, he solved it. Bush argues that Gore’s problems are not personal, but professional: To Bush, Gore abused authority; he deceived the public that elected him; he violated the public trust when he should have been dutifully –morally, if not legally—abiding by it.

• Now think for a minute: can the average American identify violations of the unwritten moral turpitudes standard? Probably not.
• Here’s what the public latches on to: Bush’s closing line. Uncritically, they accept and recant the mantra. When pressured, the public will make vague allusions to a) exaggerated claims made during the debates, and b) the conduct of the administration with which he has served.
• Ironically, Gore has been trying to draw attention to those 8 years himself, arguing that he has been part of the leadership that has brought about the greatest period of economic prosperity in modern history. ON THE ISSUES, he’s saying: “If the past 8 years have been good to you, and I have been in the White House during that time, doesn’t it make sense to continue along that path?” OFF THE ISSUES Bush argues that Gore has indeed been intimately associated with the Clinton White House; that he has been part of  morally corrupt leadership, and he does so with great passion. Importantly, the public is more interested in the rallying cries of morality than in substantive policy debate.

• How do we know this and how do we make sense of this?
• Surveys reveal that in terms of political experience, Gore has a clear advantage over Bush. On the question of who knows the issues, the leaders, and where they’re from, very few people doubt Gore’s knowledge. On his commitment to public service, Gore outranks Bush as well (Vietnam, House, Senate, White House). BUT on “likeability” and inspiration and integrity, Bush is ahead. What America wants, the polls tell us, is not a policy know it all, but someone who will lead by example, and that has been Bush’s promise throughout the campaign.

• What this also reveals is the distinction between cognitive and affective behavior in the electorate, as well as the difference between character and personal characteristics. Jimmy Carter, for example, was and is a man of tremendous integrity and intelligence, yet his honest approach to the malaise in the country begged society to look for a more inspiring leader –Reagan. Then, as now (literally this week), vision trumps experience in the court of public opinion. George W. has some of that charisma and, where he is weak on leadership, relies on “vision”. Gore has a little too much of Carter’s rhetorical sobriety, and should have learned from Clinton’s first election campaign that voters don’t want to hear chapter and verse of every policy proposal. A degree of Clinton’s empathy, animation, and passion would have helped, too.

• So, is Bush the feel-good hit of the season? If so, what’s his expiration date?
• Is Gore the education major with a 4.00 GPA –the guy who really knows his stuff—but is incapable of teaching effectively?
• Some thoughts on whether Clinton should be out there stumping for Gore:
• Nothing to lose and everything to gain?
• Consider Ike’s desperate desire –declined by Nixon-- to stump for the VP
• OR everything to lose. To Bush, Clinton’s desire to stump is welcome. In PA recently, Bush gleefully stated that “This will remind the people that this is a Vice President who can’t stand on his own two feet”; that this is the supporting actor holding the leading man’s baggage, much of which is filled, in Bush’s eyes, with dirty laundry.

Concluding thoughts on/predictions of the upcoming elections:

 The Presidency:

Boldface = going to Gore.

Underlined Boldface = almost equally likely to go to Bush

If Gore carries the boldfaced states, he’ll squeak by 274 electoral college votes.

If Bush carries the plain-type- and underlined states, he’ll win with 293 electoral college votes.

…And note that I’m taking a risk, here –a couple of these are way too close to call. 

Senate:

34 seats at stake

19 R                 15 D

11 R. Safe            10 D. Safe

8 R. In Play            5 D. In Play

Republicans hold a 54-46 majority, and will keep the Senate, 52-48.

Debbie Stabenow will defeat Spencer Abraham in MI;

Carnahan will defeat Ashcroft in MO.

But watch CN and VA…

Also, change is coming. Of the remaining 66 members not up this year, a bunch are over 75; Strom Thurmond is 97 and probably will expire, leaving Gov. Hodges (D) the opportunity to appoint a Democrat.  Stay tuned…

House:

Democrats need a net gain of 6 seats to retake the majority, but relatively few seats are at risk.

There’s no immediate redistricting effect, so incumbents should have adapted to their districts.

There are 34 open seats, 9 of which were held by Dems., 25 by Repubs., and there are 36 competitive elections going on (a couple of which are in CA, explaining why Bush might be spending so much time there).  In theory, the Democrats have the greatest opportunity to pick up seats, but getting beyond the 6 seat net gain is tough. Dems will either be up or down by only 1 seat.

Governors:

30 Republican Governors : 18 Democratic Governors

Only 11 mansions up for grabs.

DEMS. Defending:            DE                   REPS. defending:            MT

                                    IN                                                            ND           

                                    MO                                                         UT

                                    NH                                                         WV

                                    NC

                                    UT

                                    WA